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INTERNATIONAL
USA: North Korean troops are in Russia to fight against Ukraine
American officials said they estimate 2,500 North Korean troops have been dispatched
Published on October 23, 2024 at 11:00 pm

Russian invasion of Ukraine Credit: Shutterstock
United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed on Wednesday that North Korea has sent troops to Russia to join the fight against Ukraine, a major shift in Moscow’s effort to win the war. Ukraine and South Korea had already made the same warning, but for the first time the Americans confirmed the information. Austin called Pyongyang’s presence a very serious escalation that would have ramifications in both Europe and Asia.
“What exactly are they doing? It remains to be seen,” the secretary told reporters at a military base in Italy after a trip to Ukraine. He did not give details on the number of troops already there or the number expected to arrive. According to Austin, President Vladimir Putin’s need for North Korean mercenaries sounds like a sign of desperation.
“That’s an indication that he may be in more trouble than most people realize,” he said. “He went begging early on to get additional weapons and materials from the DPRK,” he continued, using the abbreviation for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, “and then from Iran, and now he’s making a play to get more people.”
But he said he had seen no evidence that troops were moving toward Ukraine. Ukrainian officials insist they are on the way, and Ukraine’s defense minister was quoted Wednesday as saying he expected to see North Korean troops in Kursk, the Russian territory that Ukraine has occupied, in the coming days.
Austin’s statement came as American intelligence officials said they were preparing to release rich intelligence material, including satellite photographs, that show troop ships moving from North Korea to training areas in Vladivostok on Russia’s east coast. and other Russian territory further north.
For two weeks there were reports from the movements, fueled by the Ukrainian and South Korean governments, that more than 12,000 North Koreans were training to fight alongside Russian soldiers.
American officials said they estimate 2,500 North Korean troops have been dispatched. But they made no estimate of how many more might follow, or even how they would fare in territory the North Korean recruits had never fought in and amid fellow fighters who speak a different language.
There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin. Russia has denied previous reports about the presence of North Korean troops. But Moscow is struggling to maintain its costly offensives in Ukraine without destabilizing Russian society. U.S. officials estimate that Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new troops a month, just enough to replace the dead and wounded. Some military analysts believe the Kremlin will have difficulty maintaining this pace without resorting to another round of unpopular mobilization.
To avoid the political cost of conscription, the Russian government has resorted to increasingly unorthodox recruitment tactics. Many Russian regions have significantly increased sign-on bonuses paid to volunteer soldiers and expanded recruitment from prisons and from poor nations such as Cuba and Nepal.
However, both Russia and North Korea experts called the arrival of North Korean troops a watershed moment. Desperate not to provoke domestic resentment over the enormous casualties Russia has suffered – more than 600,000 killed or injured, American officials recently estimated – Putin is now looking for mercenary forces, supplied by the same country that sold him more than a million rounds of artillery. , many of them defective.
For Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, the war in Ukraine was a way out of geopolitical isolation. For the first time in decades, the North has assets that a great power is willing to pay for.
Its long-term plan, experts say, may be to improve the range of its intercontinental ballistic missiles. He is eager, American intelligence agencies believe, to make clear that his arsenal of nuclear weapons is capable of reaching American cities.
“This is true ‘partnership without limits,'” said Victor Cha, a North Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who was a member of President George W. Bush’s National Security Council. “We are in a totally different era if North Korean soldiers are dying for Putin. It will raise the bar when Kim makes demands, and Putin will give him whatever he wants.”
In comments to journalists on Monday, the 21st, Ukrainian President Volodmir Zelenski sought to portray North Korea’s presence as an attempt by Putin to avoid an unpopular mobilization. “I wouldn’t say they ran out of personnel,” the Ukrainian leader said of Russia. “However, the reluctance to mobilize their own people is certainly increasing, and there are formats for mobilizing North Korean troops. That is definitely happening.”
“This indicates that the consequences of this war are already impacting Russian society,” he added.
One of the central mysteries American and South Korean intelligence agencies are focused on is what Kim might be getting in return for contributing troops.
So far, officials say, there is no clear quid pro quo in the transaction; the United States has not captured intelligence suggesting that Russia agreed to pay for the mercenaries, or provide oil or much-needed military technology in return. But there have been reports of increased cooperation on missile technology, and in that arena, Kim has some very specific needs.
It has been trying to demonstrate that its intercontinental ballistic missiles have the range to reach the United States — a goal North Korea has had since it began seriously working on its nuclear weapons program in the early 1980s.
As Kim’s missiles became more accurate, he conducted flight tests that sent them flying in high arcs through space and crashing into the Pacific. But it has yet to conduct a cross-Pacific test, one that could also demonstrate that its warheads could survive the intense heat and vibration of reentering the atmosphere — a challenge that plagued American and Soviet missile programs in the 1950s.
“Kim may believe that going this far for Putin will mean he can raise the ceiling on what he wants in return, possibly cutting-edge technology for ICBMs and nuclear submarines,” Cha said. “Both are stated goals of the program.”
Putin, American intelligence officials suggest, may also have a reason to cooperate. With the Biden administration gradually allowing U.S.-made missiles to be fired into Russian territory by Ukrainian forces, some senior officials believe, the Russian has every incentive to help North Korea show it could threaten American homeland.
Another mystery is how China is reacting to the North’s new agreements with Russia. US intelligence has concluded that Chinese officials now want to ensure that Russia wins in its conflict with Ukraine, demonstrating that the West, with all its firepower, cannot prevail far from its shores.
But North Korea has always been highly dependent on Beijing, and Kim’s move to take advantage of Russia’s need for ammunition and troops is presumably unwelcome in Beijing. China remains Pyongyang’s critical oil supplier and main trading partner. And he has sometimes used that leverage to insist that Kim not create instability or conflict in Asia.
Now, troop supplies threaten all of that. But so far, officials say, they have picked up no evidence that China is expressing its displeasure.
South Korean officials fear Russia could reward North Korea by giving it sophisticated weapons technologies that could boost its nuclear and missile programs that target South Korea. Seoul said on Tuesday it would consider providing weapons to South Korea. Ukraine in response to the deployment of troops.
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