Climate Observatory proposes carbon-negative Brazil by 2045

A study released this Tuesday (22) by the Climate Observatory (OC) network points to a possible path for the Brazilian energy sector to reduce current annual greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050.

The initiative proposes a series of measures, which would make it possible, within 26 years, to meet the country’s energy demand with an average growth in Gross Domestic Product of 2.1% per year and also guarantee the transition to a low carbon scenario.

The measures include the elimination of government subsidies for fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal), changes at Petrobras and in the country’s energy development model that, if implemented, would lead Brazil to emit 102 million tons of carbon dioxide. of carbon equivalent (CO₂e) in the energy sector in 2050.

Without these actions, the projection for the sector is 558 million tons of CO₂e, even considering the commitments made by the public authorities and the strategic plans of companies in the sector.

According to the public policy coordinator at the Climate Observatory, Suely Araújo, the initiatives would also enable Brazil to become the first major economy in the world to sequester more greenhouse gases than it emits.

“It demonstrates that we can change wrong paths and contribute in the energy sector so that Brazil becomes a carbon negative country by the year 2045.”

Among the planned guidelines are the greater insertion of renewable energies in the electricity sector, such as solar and wind, associated with new storage technologies; the development of the green hydrogen industry; more investments in biofuels and electrification of collective public transport, making it a priority in relation to individual motorized transport in urban areas.

The study also highlights the need to redirect government subsidies currently given to fossil fuels to the energy transition, in addition to ceasing the expansion of oil exploration, reversing proposals such as the opening of new wells in Foz do Amazonas.

The change also requires the development of strategies to transform Petrobras into an energy company with strong investments in low-carbon sources. The state-owned company would need to undergo a gradual reduction in oil production, ensuring the maintenance of the company’s value in the market.

According to the researchers, in addition to contributing to a low-carbon economy, the guidelines highlighted in the study would allow energy poverty to be overcome and injustices to be corrected, also making energy production more efficient. “We focus on the decarbonization necessary in the context of the crisis that is taking place in Brazil and on the planet and on climate justice”, highlights Suely.

The repositioning of the sector, which accounts for just 17.8% of gross greenhouse gas emissions in the country, would bring more sustainability to Brazilian decarbonization, according to the OC team.

“The energy transition is a structuring element of climate policy because it brings changes with definitive marks. It is different in this aspect of controlling deforestation, which can quickly reverse with government changes, as occurred in the period 2019-2022.”, points out the report.

The study also considered the socio-environmental impacts of new renewable sources and the mining of strategic metals (such as lithium, copper, graphite or rare earth metals) to meet global demand arising from the energy transition. Possible developments are highlighted as a form of warning to public authorities.

These are trends impacting the lands of traditional populations; dangerous underemployment, low quality and pay; in addition to abusive project implementation contracts and exploitation with degrading dynamics.

Other possible problems arising from the migration to low-carbon energy in a scenario of weakened or captured regulatory bodies are deforestation, pollution and intensification of agrarian conflicts and internal conflicts in local communities, for example.

The report points out that for the energy transition to be fair, it needs to have broad participation from affected communities and be guided by a regulatory framework that addresses these challenges.

“Brazil must design effective policies that reduce impacts and promote a more harmonious relationship, with social control, of renewable energy and mineral exploration projects with the places where they are located”, highlights the study.

Some of the suggested actions are the establishment of goals to reduce energy poverty, with initiatives such as generating energy close to consumers and accessible to low-income families; territorial and housing justice, with the integration of social classes in central urban areas and the reduction of travel and distances; in addition to eliminating the use of fossil energy in public mobility.

Passenger transport is identified as the area of ​​energy demand with the greatest opportunity for rapid reduction in emissions. In order for the activity to stop emitting 102 million tons of CO₂e, as recorded by the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removal Estimation System (SEEG) in 2022, and start emitting only 16 million tons, simple guidelines are suggested such as the replacement of gasoline with ethanol in flex-fuel vehicles and gradual electrification of the fleet.

At the other end, cargo transport, mostly by road in Brazil, is what presents the biggest challenges, according to the researchers. The high cost of batteries that support long distances and the replacement of other components are barriers highlighted for the electrification of heavy and semi-heavy trucks, indicating a slower process in reducing emissions from this activity.