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CONCERN
Planet could heat up by 3.1ºC to 3.6ºC with gas emissions
Study was published this Thursday by the UN
Published on October 25, 2024 at 12:36 pm
Fire and deforestation in Corumbá, MS Credit: Federal Police/MS
Maintaining global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius (ºC) is still possible, but to do so, countries need to reduce current greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035. The conclusion is of the 2024 Emissions Gap Report, released by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), this Thursday (24).
“Continuing the mitigation effort with current policies brings global warming to a maximum of 3.1°C over the century, with a 66% probability, and there remains a 10% probability that warming could exceed 3.1°C. 6°C”, highlights the report.
According to the report, strict compliance with the NDCs by 2030 would still result in a temperature rise of 2.6 ºC. This scenario would occur with the fulfillment of both unconditional goals, that is, which must be compulsorily met, and goals that were conditioned on the availability of international financing.
Implementing only unconditional NDCs would lead the world to temperatures 2.8°C higher. Current policies would lead the planet to 3.1°C of warming.
For the Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN), António Guterres, it is necessary to act now, starting during the next round of negotiations that will take place between the 11th and 22nd of November, at the 29th United Nations Conference on Climate Change ( COP29). “We are out of time. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap and the financial gap”, he reinforces.
The maximum deadline for updating the NDCs is February 2025, before the 30th COP, which will take place in Belém do Pará, Brazil. In the new goals, 2019 becomes the reference for countries’ greenhouse gas emissions commitments.
In a scenario with this new reference and to limit global warming to less than 2ºC, the report indicates that emissions would need to fall by 28% by 2030 and 37% by 2035. The researchers also highlight that the consequences of delaying actions to make this viable limitation already imply consequences that distance the planet from this scenario, such as the record of 57.1 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent in emissions, reached in 2023.
“There is a direct link between rising emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. All over the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures that fuel monstrous hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into powder kegs and cities into saunas; record rainfall is resulting in biblical floods”, warns Guterres.
In addition to highlighting the necessary cuts in emissions, the report also indicates possible paths, such as the potential for a 27% reduction in emissions in 2030 and 38% in 2035, with the increase in solar and wind technologies in energy generation. Improving forest management, reducing deforestation and increasing reforestation has the potential to reduce current emissions by 19% in 2030 and 20% in 2035, the researchers say.
The investments needed to finance the global path to net-zero emissions by 2050 were also calculated. According to the report, US$0.9 to 2.1 trillion per year would be needed from 2021 to 2050, “which is substantial , but manageable in the broader context of the current global economy and financial markets of nearly US$110 trillion,” the report highlights.
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